Over the past week, the market has performed almost exactly in line with our previously outlined expectations.
As early as April 5 in my YouTube update, I introduced the Machiavellian strategic logic combined with technical cycle analysis, emphasizing a key point: the worst may already be behind us. (Incidentally, Trump is not only an admirer of Machiavelli but also has long admired the Roman Emperor Caligula — we’ll discuss their behavioral similarities in future updates.)
At that time, I specifically highlighted the S&P 4820 level as a critical emotional exhaustion point with significant technical and psychological implications.
In the April 22 YouTube video, I further analyzed cross-asset liquidity and institutional fund flows, developing another major thesis:
Massive dormant capital will eventually flow back into the stock market.
And now, this prediction is gradually materializing.
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🧭 Where the Market Stands Now
As of today, the S&P 500 is advancing into the “above 5500” zone, a tricky area that I have repeatedly flagged earlier.
It’s important to first be clear:
1. There is never such a thing as “certainty” in the market.
2. If you wait for 100% confirmation, you are almost guaranteed to miss the best opportunities.
3. When everything seems confirmed, the pendulum often has already started to swing back.
The bad news is:
• The 5500–5800 zone is unlikely to be a smooth breakout area.
• Expect significant volatility, false breakouts, and shakeouts in this range.
The good news is:
• The low from April 21 (around 5100) now stands a good chance of forming a higher low, providing important structural support for the next stage of the market move.
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🔎 Focus on Tech: Keep a Close Eye on QQQ
The market remains highly tech-driven at the moment. Therefore, instead of chasing random moves across sectors, it’s more efficient and actionable to focus on QQQ.
I’ve drawn my expected path for QQQ over the coming weeks (see chart below).
Key views:
1. May is unlikely to be a straight, one-way rally.
2. Instead, a period of back-and-forth volatility is more probable.
I expect QQQ to retest the inverse extension line drawn in the chart — a natural technical correction fitting with the broader structural logic.
3. This rhythm matches a healthy consolidation after the previous surge.
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📝 Key Takeaways
1. Q2 is still progressing according to the previously proposed theme: “Q2 is not ugly.”
2. Patience and flexibility are critical in current operations.
3. Stop trying to label the market — whether it’s a bull market or a bear market rally is irrelevant. What matters is understanding structure, rhythm, and money flow.
4. In high-friction zones, controlling position sizes and managing risk becomes even more important.
5. As I have always emphasized, market participation is not about seeking perfect certainty. It’s about standing in the arena when opportunity outweighs risk, with reasonable conviction.
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