Avoid Blind Optimism — December Will Not Be a One-Way Rally
Since the key turning point on Nov. 20, the market has moved sharply. QQQ is up almost 6%, SPY is up 5%, and IWM (Russell 2000) is up nearly 9%.
Nov 20: Daily Updates
AI leader Nvidia #NVDA kept strong growth. This eased some worries about an AI bubble. The “Big 7” tech companies have now all reported earnings for this quarter. GOOGL, NVDA, and AAPL formed the first group. AMZN, MSFT, META, and TSLA formed the second group.
QQQ Analysis
If we add up all the bearish headlines in the market right now, QQQ could see a pullback of about 10%. That would mean a drop from the Oct. 29 high of $637 down to the 575–576 area.
This Week's Key Events (Oct 17-21)
The U.S. government has reopened. Many Federal Reserve members will give public speeches this week. As of Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, so this earnings season is almost finished. Overall earnings are up 13.1% year-over-year, and revenue is up 8.3%, both above earlier market expectations.
This Week's Key Events (Oct 10-14)
The U.S. government shutdown is now entering its 7th week. It is still uncertain whether the October inflation data will be released on time. Several Fed members will give public speeches this week.
Nov 7:Daily Updates
In the first week of November, major indexes pulled back from recent highs. SPY has already reached the upper boundary of the first target adjustment zone mentioned in Tuesday’s premarket note, which also aligns with the short-term trendline support shown in last weekend’s review video. Previous strong AI leaders have become the main force dragging the market down.
ORCL: Institutional Holdings Stable, Return to $330 Still Likely This Year
Nov. 03 ORCL: Institutional Holdings Stable, Return to $330 Still Likely This Year
This Week's Key Events(Oct 3-7)
Starting this weekend, North America will switch to winter time.
Oct 31: Daily Updates
The last trading day of the month, with the stock index set for six straight months of gains. After Amazon and Apple’s earnings reports, both hit new highs, lifting the major indexes sharply higher. Tech stocks are leading the rally — NDX100 is up nearly 1.5% pre-market.
SOFI – Strong Continuation of Uptrend
SoFi Technologies is one of the core holdings in our TCS High-Net-Worth Mid-Term Model Portfolio.
This Week's Key Events (Oct 27-31)
The U.S. government shutdown is entering its fifth week, and it is uncertain whether some economic data will be released on schedule.
Oct 24: Daily Updates
The September CPI, delayed due to the government shutdown, rose 0.3% month-on-month, better than the expected 0.4%. The annual rate fell to 3%, also better than the forecast and previous value of 3.1%, though still well above the Fed’s target.