Initial jobless claims continued to fall last week and came in better than expected. Trump announced new tariffs on multiple countries again, including a 50% rate on Brazil. However, the market has mostly ignored this kind of news recently.

After reaching new highs, ES and NQ pulled back as expected. TCS shorted ES near 6305 and NQ near 23025, both trades were profitable. More importantly, these short positions helped hedge long ETF and stock holdings.

The new Q2 2025 earnings season will officially begin on July 15. The market expects S&P 500 companies to report a 5% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 4.2% increase in revenue. This would be the slowest growth since Q4 2023. Only three sectors—communication services, information technology, and utilities—are expected to grow earnings faster than the S&P 500 average. Earnings in energy, consumer durables, basic materials, consumer staples, and industrials are all expected to decline compared to last year.

The U.S. stock market will close early at 1 PM today due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

Date : 1 July, 2025

Today is the last trading day of June. The monthly chart for the major indexes is set to close with two straight months of gains. The only question is how long the upper shadow will be.

Only one S&P 500 constituent company is scheduled to report earnings in the upcoming week. Due to the Independence Day holiday, U.S. equity markets will only trade for 3.5 days. Canadian and Hong Kong markets will also be closed on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Congress needs to expedite the process of passing the “Big and Beautiful” tax bill. Markets will mainly focus on employment-related data and the progress of trade negotiations between the U.S., the EU, and others. Key corporate earnings and economic data releases are as follows: