Aug 29: Daily Updates

Last trading day of the month. The S&P 500 monthly chart is set for four straight green candles. The only question is how long the upper shadow will be. SPX opened this month at 6287, and yesterday it closed above 6500 for the first time. It is now up +162 points, or +2.56%. Nasdaq 100 is up +2.09% this month, Dow Jones 30 is up +3.41%, and Russell 2000 has surged +7.54%.

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This Weekly's Key Event (Aug 25-29)

This week marks the end of August trading. Only 15 S&P 500 companies will report earnings, but the focus is on AI chip giant NVIDIA (NVDA). Chinese e-commerce leaders Alibaba (BABA) and Pinduoduo (PDD), as well as Canada’s five big banks (BMO, BNS, RY, TD, CM), will also release results.

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Aug 21: Daily Updates

The central bank’s annual meeting starts Friday. This year’s theme will focus on the labor market. Yesterday, the Fed’s FOMC minutes showed that the main risk is still tariffs that could trigger inflation, while labor market risks are secondary. Clearly, before deciding the theme, they did not foresee Trump’s tariff-for-tariff policy. This Fed has always been chasing the market.

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Aug 15: Daily Updates

Today is this month’s options expiration day. Pay special attention if you hold expiring options or futures contracts. The Russian and U.S. leaders will meet in Alaska this afternoon. July retail sales growth slowed to 0.5% month-on-month, matching market expectations, down from the previous 0.9%. The import price index rose 0.4% (previous: -0.1%). The export price index rose 0.1% (previous: 0.5%).

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Aug 12: Daily Updates

July CPI month-over-month kept falling. Annualized rate is 2.7%, better than the market estimate of 2.8%. Core CPI is 3.1%, compared to the 3% estimate. The idea that tariffs are driving inflation seems unlikely. Index futures jumped sharply before the open. Nasdaq hit another record high. Futures market expects the Fed to cut rates three times. ZM trade talks extended for another 90 days.

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