Starting this weekend, North America will switch to winter time.
The U.S. government shutdown is entering its sixth week. It is still unclear whether key job data such as ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on schedule. Several Fed officials will also give public speeches.
As of Friday, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. Overall earnings are up 10.7% year over year, and revenue is up 7.9%, both better than market expectations.
This week, 136 more S&P 500 companies will report results, mainly in chips and cloud, energy, pharma, and metals. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio now stands at 22.9.
Key events this week:
• Mon: Manufacturing PMI, ISM Index, auto sales. Earnings: PLTR, VRTX, WMB, QRVO, UUUU.
• Tue: U.S. trade deficit, factory orders, September job openings. Earnings: AMD, SHOP, UBER, ANET, AMGN, PFE, SPOT, BP, MAR, ZTS, MPC, ALAB, PINS, TEM.
• Wed: ADP employment report, services PMI and ISM Index. Earnings: TM, NVO, MCD, APP, QCOM, ARM, HOOD, DASH, MCK, CCJ, HMC, HUM, TRMB, IONQ, ALB.
• Thu: Initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories. Earnings: AZN, COP, ABNB, MNST, DDOG, TTWO, DD, EXPE, TTD, AFRM, BCE, GRAB, H, WYNN, QBTS, DOCS, SMR, MP, MRNA.
• Fri: October Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, consumer sentiment. Earnings: ENB, WEN, and others.
For large S&P 500 companies, earnings are expected to grow +13.3% in Q1 2025 and +12% in Q2 2025, with revenue up +4.9% and +6.5%.
Market forecasts show earnings growth of +7.5%, +11.9%, and +12.8% for Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, and revenue growth of +6.4%, +7.2%, and +6.5%.
For the full year 2025, earnings are expected to rise +11.0%, with revenue up +6.2%.
For 2026, earnings are projected to grow +13.9%, and revenue +6.6%.
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