The U.S. government has reopened. Many Federal Reserve members will give public speeches this week. As of Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, so this earnings season is almost finished. Overall earnings are up 13.1% year-over-year, and revenue is up 8.3%, both above earlier market expectations.
Only 13 S&P 500 companies will report this week, but NVIDIA’s earnings will be the main focus. Other key reports include HD, WMT, and China ADRs such as BIDU, PDD, and XPEV. The forward P/E of the S&P 500 is now 22.4.
Key events this week:
Monday: Empire Manufacturing Index; speeches from three Fed regional presidents. Earnings: XPEV, HTHT, JKS, SOHU, NIU.
Tuesday: Import and export price index; industrial production; homebuilder confidence; speech by Fed Vice Chair Barr. Earnings: HD, PDD, MDT, BIDU, FUTU, WB, IQ, TIGR.
Wednesday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; housing starts and building permits; FOMC meeting minutes. Earnings: NVDA, PANW, LOW, TGT, WSM, ZTO.
Thursday: Initial jobless claims; existing home sales; leading economic indicators; speeches from three Fed regional presidents. Earnings: WMT, INTU, NTES, ROST, VIPS, GAP.
Friday: Services and manufacturing PMI; consumer confidence; speeches from three Fed regional presidents.
S&P 500 Large-Cap Outlook:
• 25Q1–25Q2 earnings growth: +13.3% and +12%
Revenue growth: +4.9% and +6.5%
• Market expects 25Q4–26Q2 earnings to grow 7.5%, 11.8%, and 12.7%
Revenue to grow 7.1%, 7.7%, and 6.8%
• Full-year 2025: earnings +11.6%, revenue +6.8%
• Full-year 2026: earnings +13.7%, revenue +6.9%
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