The last trading day of May. So far, the S&P is up 343 points this month, with +6.16%. This is the biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Whether it can hold these gains by the close is the key focus. The Nasdaq 100 is currently up +9.16% for the month.
Before the market opened, April PCE and Core PCE data were released, matching expectations. The annual rate dropped to 2.1% from 2.3%. The goods trade deficit shrank almost by half to $87.6 billion from $162.3 billion.
Trump’s tariff proposal has sparked legal disputes. An appeals court ruled to pause a trade court decision that declared tariffs unconstitutional. After an initial surge, the market quickly pulled back and continues to trade in a high range. Trump posted an accusation that China violated trade agreements, likely trying to shift focus. It seems a prolonged battle is likely.
SPY has been trading sideways for 14 days since a big jump on May 12 after a trade agreement with China. The upper range is around $595 (with highs near $598), and the lower range is around $578 (with lows near $573). The middle range is around $588-585. At the open, watch for support around the middle range to guide intraday direction.
Individual stocks are mostly down pre-market. Quantum concept stocks are leading the losses. PATH (software) is up +12% after earnings, ZS is up +5%. MRVL (chipmaker) is down -4%. REGN (healthcare) is down -13% due to poor drug trial results. COST (consumer giant) reported lower-than-expected revenue, stock is down slightly.
After big swings in April, the index is now at a high level, stuck between two options. Leading tech stock MSFT is trading below its all-time high around $464, and has been in a sideways range for two weeks. Watch to see if it breaks higher. NVDA jumped after earnings yesterday but then pulled back, still near its all-time high of about $150. It needs to hold support around $138-135 to continue higher. TSLA broke above the $330-350 range earlier this week but hasn’t moved higher for three days; watch if the support range holds. Similar analysis applies to other stocks.
Today’s monthly chart pattern will influence how next month’s trend is judged.
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