May ADP jobs report was much weaker than expected — 37K actual vs. 115K expected vs. 60K previous. Right after the data came out, Trump posted calling on the Fed to cut rates quickly. Treasury yields dropped sharply. If 10- and 20-year yields fall below 4.3% and 4.8%, the trend could reverse.
Service PMI and ISM data will be released around 10 a.m. The Fed Beige Book comes out at 2 p.m. this afternoon. A 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum takes effect today (UK is excluded).
Indexes hit new highs yesterday, the highest since April. SPY touched around $598 pre-market, which is the upper end of the resistance range mentioned in the past two weeks. This is still a key level for both short-term and swing trading. If it breaks and holds above it, the next target is the previous all-time high. If it pulls back and breaks below $590 again, it may enter a short-term consolidation.
Yesterday’s rally was mainly driven by beaten-down sectors bouncing back. Big tech stocks mostly acted as stable support, not leaders. Whether the market can keep climbing depends on whether the big 7 tech names can break higher quickly.
MSFT has been stuck just below its all-time high at $464 for three weeks. NVDA moved back to its post-earnings high around $143, but $150 remains a major resistance. META is relatively strong and has stepped up again. AMZN is still moving sideways near its 200-day line. GOOGL fell back below its 200-day line. AAPL is the weakest still trading below both the 200-day and mid-term moving averages. TSLA also pulled back to the lower edge of its recent breakout range.
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