Monday, July 28
After reaching new highs, ES and NQ met resistance and began to consolidate, as expected. We’ve repeatedly shared this view in our futures updates: markets are born in despair (like in March and April this year), grow in hesitation (May and June), and end in euphoria (be especially cautious in Q3).
Our TCS always follows three key principles:
• Trade with a plan
• Be patient
• Follow the plan (especially at key support and resistance levels)
Although ES and NQ reached new highs, the index futures remain in a wide and volatile range. There is no clear sign of a strong uptrend or downtrend yet. Both long and short trades can be profitable in this environment.
Support and Resistance Levels:
• ES:
• Strong support: 6342 and 6191
• Main upside target and resistance: 6467
• YM:
• Strong support: 44550 and 43980
• Strong resistance: 45450
• NQ:
• Key level: 23140
• Support: 22830
• Main upside target and resistance: 23580
• RTY:
• Strong support: 2198
• Resistance (same as July 18 reminder): 2297 (last week’s high was 2296.8)
For index futures, the main strategy is still to buy near support on the daily chart.
Gold (GC, Q25)
Gold faced resistance near 3387 and dropped back to around 3300. We’ve had good results both buying and shorting gold recently. The trend is still clearly upward, so buying near support remains the main strategy. But be alert to possible pullbacks or sideways action at high levels.
• Strong support: 3282
• Strong resistance: 3387
Crude Oil (CL, U25)
Oil prices were highly volatile due to news events. After rising to around 79 and hitting resistance, prices pulled back and found support near 65.1 as expected. The main approach remains buying near support.
• Support: 65.1 and 63.2
• Upside target and resistance: 70.8 and 75.2
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Natural Gas (NG, U25 – September contract)
Natural gas failed to hold its rebound and fell sharply. NG often moves extremely, with daily swings of 5%-10%.
• Strong support: 3.01
• Upside target and resistance: 3.83
U.S. Treasury Bonds (ZB, Q25)
ZB also tends to move sharply both up and down. The main strategy is still buying at support.
• Strong support (as repeatedly mentioned): 111’15 (this week’s low: 111’11)
• Upside target and resistance: 116’10
U.S. Dollar Futures
The dollar bounced back from the long-watched strong support around 96. We’ve repeatedly advised locking in profits for long positions in non-USD currencies.
Bitcoin Futures (BTC)
BTC returned to around 121,000.
• Support: 104,000 and 97,000 (good buy zones)
• Next major target and resistance: 145,000
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