This update comes today because TCS believes there is a major change happening in the market’s cycle structure. This change seems more significant than the minor turning points seen in recent months. I’ll explain why.
From Minor Turning Points to a Possible Medium-Term Reversal
Looking back, extreme pessimism in the market appeared around April 5, 2025. Confidence was very low at that time, but TCS stated that “Q2 is not ugly – it might even be beautiful.” This view turned out to be correct. The market did not fully follow sentiment or sentiment indicators.
On April 22, TCS said that a large amount of idle capital would return to the stock market. On May 17, the market entered a “fear of missing out” phase. On June 21, TCS expected a fast pullback, but called it a “buyable dip.”
These were all minor turning points. They were only short pauses or pullbacks within a bigger upward trend that started in early April. But now, we may be entering a new stage — a medium-term adjustment that could mark the shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
Why This Drop Feels Different
Today’s title is: “This Drop Matters.”
The reason is simple:
• The pullback in May: down 3.5%, took about 5–6 days
• The pullback in June: down 2.5%, with similar timing
• This drop: down 4.16% in just two days
From a price action view, this mix of speed and size shows a clear acceleration. It could be the start of a reversal. A short-term rebound is likely, but we do not yet have enough time confirmation. Earlier pullbacks lasted longer. So we need to keep watching.
Key Levels – Taking QQQ as an Example
For QQQ, TCS is focusing on the following:
• Resistance: The midpoint of this two-day drop is around 563. If the price can climb back above 563, it means sellers may need more time, and the index might even retest the recent high at 574.
• Support: The midpoint between the June 23 low and the July 31 high is around 549–550. This is a high-volume area and may provide support.
• Value Range: This drop has already reached the daily value area (between the 21-day and 50-day moving averages). This range often brings a short-term rebound. But how price behaves around 563 will help decide if a top is forming.
Trading Ideas – Inverse ETFs and Sector Rotation
If the market bounces next week, some inverse ETFs may offer pullback entry points:
• SDOW (Dow inverse) – watch the 41–42 area
• TZA (Russell inverse) – similar structure
• SH (S&P inverse) and PSQ (Nasdaq inverse) – also worth watching if they pull back to halfway levels
Besides inverse ETFs, some defensive and utility-related stocks may offer short-term buying opportunities:
• VST and CEG – utility stocks but connected to AI and data center demand
• WMT – a leader in consumer staples, may break out from its recent range
These types of stocks often hold up better when growth stocks lose momentum.
Summary
• In terms of price, this drop is clearly larger than the last two minor turning points
• Time-wise, we still need to watch the rebound for confirmation
• 563 on QQQ is a key level for both bulls and bears
• Inverse ETFs and defensive sectors may offer tactical opportunities
Keep a close eye on important price levels. Respect price action. Stay flexible.
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