July CPI month-over-month kept falling. Annualized rate is 2.7%, better than the market estimate of 2.8%. Core CPI is 3.1%, compared to the 3% estimate. The idea that tariffs are driving inflation seems unlikely. Index futures jumped sharply before the open. Nasdaq hit another record high. Futures market expects the Fed to cut rates three times. ZM trade talks extended for another 90 days.
SPY pre-market moved into the $638–642 resistance area. At the open, it quickly broke above and kept rising, then pulled back to test the $635 area. The seven big tech leaders have not broken above last week’s highs. Bulls still have work to do.
Most stocks rose before the open. Stablecoin CRCL reported its first loss since listing, but revenue jumped 53%. USDC annual growth is 90%. Stock price +11%. Singapore e-commerce SE beat expectations with +15%. Software giant SAP is -5% pre-market.
Today’s focus is still on the big tech leaders. TSLA broke out of a months-long range yesterday and needs to push higher quickly. AAPL rose strongly last week and needs to keep climbing after a short rest. NVDA, GOOGL, and META are near resistance. MSFT and AMZN bounced from key support yesterday. Leading financial and industrial stocks are still resting. Cloud stocks and most chip stocks are also pulling back. Market breadth remains weak. Be careful chasing highs.
The market is about to open. Even though indexes are up, most stocks have not moved to a higher level. Before breaking resistance, news impact on the market is basically neutral.
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