The Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium will be held on Aug 22–24 and is expected to be the main market focus this week.
Q2 2025 earnings season is nearly over. 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported results. Among them, 81% beat market estimates on both earnings and revenue. Overall results are much better than early-season forecasts.
• Earnings grew +11.8% YoY, compared with the initial estimate of +4.9%. Fastest growth came from Communication Services, Information Technology, and Financials.
• Revenue grew +6.3% YoY, compared with the initial estimate of +4.2%. Fastest growth came from Information Technology, Healthcare, and Communication Services.
• S&P 500 forward P/E is 22.1.
This week, 15 S&P 500 companies will report, including Dow components HD, WMT, as well as several China ADRs.
Key schedule:
• Mon: NAHB Housing Market Index. Earnings: PANW.
• Tue: July Housing Starts and Building Permits. Earnings: HD, MDT, XPEV.
• Wed: FOMC July Meeting Minutes. Earnings: TJX, LOW, ADI, TGT, EL, BIDU, FUTU, HTHT, IQ, ZIM.
• Thu: Weekly Jobless Claims, Services & Manufacturing PMIs, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators. Earnings: WMT, INTU, WDAY, ROST, ZM, BILI.
• Fri: —
Earnings Outlook
• Q1 2025: S&P 500 earnings +13.3% YoY, revenue +4.9% YoY.
• Q3–Q4 2025 (market forecast): earnings +7.2%, +7.0%; revenue +5.8%, +6.2%.
• FY 2025: earnings +10.3%, revenue +5.8%.
• FY 2026: earnings +13.3%, revenue +6.3%.
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