Last trading day of the month. The S&P 500 monthly chart is set for four straight green candles. The only question is how long the upper shadow will be. SPX opened this month at 6287, and yesterday it closed above 6500 for the first time. It is now up +162 points, or +2.56%. Nasdaq 100 is up +2.09% this month, Dow Jones 30 is up +3.41%, and Russell 2000 has surged +7.54%.
Pre-market data: July PCE inflation rose +0.2% MoM, down from last month’s +0.3%, in line with forecasts. Annualized rate: 2.6%. Core PCE annualized +2.9% vs last month’s +2.8%. U.S. trade deficit widened to -$103.6B, from -$84.9B. After the data, the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut in September rose to 87.2%.
Index futures pulled back slightly pre-market. SPY found support at the key level mentioned yesterday, then bounced and hit another all-time high. That level remains the intraday bull/bear pivot. Next upside test is still around $6500.
Stocks pre-market: more down than up.
• ADSK surged +13% after earnings.
• DELL gave weaker profit guidance, down -6% pre-market.
• MRVL data center revenue missed, next quarter may see zero growth, raising doubts; stock dropped -15%.
• CAT warned Trump tariffs will cost $1.5–1.8B this year; stock down -3%.
China ADRs:
• BABA Q2 adjusted net profit fell -18% YoY to $2.06/share, below market est. $2.13/share. Revenue grew +2%, also below forecast. Excluding divested units, revenue +10%. Cloud division accelerated +26%. AI-related products achieved triple-digit growth for 8 straight quarters. Company will replace Nvidia H20 with self-developed chips. Stock up +7% pre-market, near this month’s high around $128. If it clears that at open, it may break out of the two-month sideways range and move higher.
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