Five S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week, including logistics giant FDX and homebuilder LEN, a new holding for Buffett last quarter.
The Fed policy meeting on Wednesday is the main focus for global markets. A rate cut restart is almost certain. The chance of a 25bps cut is 93.4%, while Standard Chartered says a 50bps pre-emptive cut cannot be ruled out. The dot plot and Powell’s speech will be watched closely.
Key data and events:
• Mon: September Empire Manufacturing Index.
• Tue: August retail sales, import/export price index, industrial production, July business inventories, September homebuilder confidence index.
• Wed: August housing starts and building permits, Fed FOMC decision, Powell’s press conference.
• Thu: Weekly jobless claims, August leading indicators, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Earnings: FDX, LEN, DRI, FDS.
• Fri: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President.
Earnings outlook for S&P 500 large caps:
• 25Q1–Q2: EPS growth +13.3% and +12%; revenue growth +4.9% and +6.5%.
• 25Q3–Q4 (expected): EPS growth +7.5% and +7.2%; revenue growth +6.1% and +6.3%.
• Full-year 2025: EPS +10.6%, revenue +6.0%.
• Full-year 2026: EPS +13.4%, revenue +6.4%.
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