The new Q3 2025 earnings season will start in two weeks. The market keeps revising earnings growth higher. The fastest-growing sectors this quarter are expected to be Information Technology, Utilities, and Basic Materials. Energy, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Durables are expected to show negative growth.
This week, 5 S&P 500 companies will report results, including consumer leader Nike (NKE). The main market focus will be jobs data and speeches from several Fed voting members.
Key schedule:
• Mon: 3 regional Fed presidents speak. August existing home sales. Earnings: CCL.
• Tue: 2 regional Fed presidents speak. August job openings, September consumer confidence, and Chicago PMI. Earnings: NKE, PAYX.
• Wed: September ADP jobs report, manufacturing PMI and ISM, auto sales. Earnings: CALM.
• Thu: Dallas Fed president speaks. Weekly jobless claims, August factory orders.
• Fri: Fed Vice Chair Philip speaks. September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, services PMI and ISM.
Earnings outlook:
Large S&P 500 companies reported earnings growth of +13.3% YoY in Q1 2025 and +12% in Q2 2025, with revenue growth of +4.9% and +6.5%.
For the next four quarters (Q3 2025 – Q2 2026), earnings are expected to grow +7.9%, +7.3%, +11.7%, and +12.7%. Revenue is expected to grow +6.3%, +6.4%, +7.1%, and +6.4%.
For full year 2025, earnings are expected to grow +10.8% with revenue +6.1%.
For full year 2026, earnings are expected to grow +13.8% with revenue +6.6%.
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