The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, and it is uncertain whether data such as inflation reports will be released on time.
The Q3 2025 earnings season officially begins this week.
A total of 37 S&P 500 companies, including 5 Dow Jones components, will report results.
Main focus: major U.S. banks and leading chip equipment firms such as ASML and TSMC.
Several voting members of the Federal Reserve will also give public speeches.
Main Schedule:
• Mon: Columbus Day. Bond market closed; stock market open. Speech by Philadelphia Fed President.
• Tue: Speeches by 3 regional Fed Presidents. NFIB Optimism Index. Earnings: JPM, JNJ, WFC, GS, BLK, C, DPZ.
• Wed: Speeches by 3 regional Fed Presidents. Empire Manufacturing Index and Fed Beige Book. Earnings: ASML, BAC, MS, ABT, PNC, UAL.
• Thu: Speeches by 7 regional Fed Presidents. Data: jobless claims, retail sales, September CPI & Core CPI, PPI & Core PPI, business inventories, and homebuilder confidence. Earnings: TSM, SCHW, USB, BK, TRV.
• Fri: Monthly options expiration. Data: housing starts, building permits, import/export prices, and industrial production. Earnings: AXP, SLB, and others.
Earnings Outlook:
S&P 500 companies posted +13.3% and +12% year-on-year earnings growth in Q1 and Q2 2025, with revenue up +4.9% and +6.5%.
Market expects earnings to grow 8.0%, 7.4%, 11.7%, and 12.7% in Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, and revenue to rise 6.3%, 6.4%, 7.2%, and 6.4%.
For full-year 2025, earnings are expected to rise 10.9% and revenue 6.1%.
For 2026, earnings are expected to grow 13.8% and revenue 6.6%.
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