Crypto Market: Bulls and Bears at a Critical Point

1. Short-term view:

BTC and ETH remain in a downward channel. Bears still dominate, and rebounds below the trendline are limited.

2. Current battle:

Bulls are testing key support zones, but bears still hold the advantage.

3. Reversal signals:

For a real turnaround, BTC needs to reclaim $115K, and ETH must break above $4,172, then stay above those levels for at least two hours.

4. Downside risks:

If BTC falls below $106K or ETH below $3,900 again, selling pressure will quickly increase.

In short:

a. BTC is near a potential rebound area, but bulls remain weak.

b. ETH shows slightly better resilience, yet it’s still under pressure — bulls can’t sustain an attack.

c. Market volatility is shrinking, and a clear direction is approaching.

How bears are operating:

Their short-selling strategy is simple but very effective. They deposit large amounts of stablecoins as collateral on lending platforms, borrow big sums of ETH/BTC, then transfer them to exchanges to sell in batches or open short positions, creating ongoing downward pressure. When prices drop further, they buy back ETH/BTC at lower levels, repay the loans, and pocket the profit from the difference.

Bears don’t short blindly. They strike at overheated levels, broken technical patterns, or key liquidity zones — using both capital size and market sentiment to speed up the decline. A common tactic is the “fake breakout, real dump”: pushing prices up to attract buyers, then reversing sharply to trap them. That’s why holding above the key breakout levels for at least two hours is critical.

This short-selling pattern is still ongoing. Theoretically, only after the final wave of short positions enters will BTC and ETH experience a geometric-style melt-up.