The U.S. stock market will close early at 1 PM today due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
Non-farm payroll data for June was released before the market opened. It showed strong growth, with 147K new jobs added, better than the expected 120K and slightly above last month’s 144K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. After the data release, stock indexes moved slightly higher. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply, while gold prices fell.
The chance of a rate cut this month dropped significantly to below 5%, compared to about 25% earlier. The expected number of rate cuts this year is now down to two, from three before.
Trump said a trade agreement has been reached with Vietnam. The House passed the “Big and Beautiful” Act overnight. There are also reports that the U.S. has lifted restrictions on EDA exports to China.
Recently, the broader market has entered a catch-up phase. Stocks that led earlier, especially in AI chips, cloud, and tech, are pulling back. At the same time, energy and basic materials are rebounding. Leading industrial stocks are also catching up. Small- and mid-cap indexes are rising sharply, while the Nasdaq remains relatively weak.
Market sentiment is improving, and more stocks are gaining. However, the broad rebound is testing the market’s liquidity. It is important to watch if sector rotation continues. A quick rebound in leading tech stocks after their pullback will be key.
Today, focus remains on several leading stocks. Here are some key positions:
• AAPL has turned stronger and is near key resistance around $215.
• AMZN and GOOGL have moved sideways for several days. A breakout above $225 and $180, respectively, would support further gains.
• NVDA and AMD are pulling back to earlier breakout levels. Watch resistance at $159 and $148.
• ORCL hit a new high yesterday on news.
• MSFT is down for the third straight day after layoffs. It needs to break above $500 soon to continue higher.
• Leading industrial stocks like CAT and HON are near record highs.
• GM, F, and auto parts stocks are rising steadily.
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