Today is the first day of the U.S. government shutdown. Instead of falling, the stock index hit a record high. Since 1990, the government has shut down six times, and each time the stock market still closed higher.
Looking at a longer period, over the past 50 years the average stock market return during shutdowns was -1.6%. The worst case was in 1979, when the market dropped -6% during the shutdown.
The last time was under Trump’s first term, when the government shut down for 35 days (2018/12/22–2019/01/25), the longest shutdown in history. During that time, the stock index rose sharply by +10%.
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