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Tech media outlet The Information reported on September 19 that, after better-than-expected pre-orders of the standard iPhone 17, Apple asked one of its main suppliers, Luxshare Precision, to raise daily production of the standard model by about 40%. Some non-electronic parts suppliers were also told to raise daily supply by about 30%.
Today is the quarterly quadruple witching day. Please pay attention to expiring options or futures contracts. Roll over or close positions in advance. No economic data will be released before market open. At 9 a.m., the leaders of China and the U.S. will have a phone call. The market is waiting for more news.
At today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 0.25 percentage points, in line with broad market expectations. The move aims to address a slowing job market and inflation that remains high under Trump’s tariff pressure, though not worsening.
The Fed’s three rate cuts this year are roughly in line with market expectations, bringing the rate down from 3.9% to 3.6%. However, the year-end 2025 rate projection is 3.4%, implying one more cut than previously expected, but still far, far above the market’s expectation of 2.75–3%.
• Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug): –8.7 vs. 3.0 expected vs. 11.9 prior.
Five S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week, including logistics giant FDX and homebuilder LEN, a new holding for Buffett last quarter.
Looking back at the last few notes (Aug. 26, Aug. 29, and Sep. 3), the theme was always “Strength in Pause.”
The August Small Business Optimism Index came in at 100.8 vs 100.3 last month. Today the market focus is on Apple’s fall product launch. In recent years, new product announcements have not given much boost to the stock on the same day. Let’s see if the iPhone 17 brings any surprise this time. With no big macro news, the market keeps moving in a tight range near the highs. The S&P 500 only swung 25 points yesterday. Key intraday levels are the same as yesterday’s premarket note.
Only four S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, including software giants ORCL, SNPS, and ADBE. The main focus will be on CPI and PPI inflation data. Key schedule:
August nonfarm payrolls came in at 22K, far below market expectations of 78K and the previous figure of 79K. Since the revision of Aug 1 data, the quality of macro data has raised doubts in the market. The probability of a Fed rate cut this month has risen to 99%. Cuts are also expected in October and December. Stock indexes opened higher in pre-market and hit new record highs. Yields on 10Y/20Y Treasuries fell below yesterday’s key level and kept moving down.
The main index keeps moving in a high and volatile range. Stock index futures dropped sharply. Last week, TCS suggested shorting MNQ near 23,740 and shorting MES near 6,490, which helped hedge downside risk.
On the first trading day of September, indexes opened much lower, but main indexes still held short-term key support. SPY dropped to around the suggested $635 level (actual low 634.92) and then rebounded. In pre-market, the gap was fully filled. If at the open SPY can move quickly above $643–644, bulls may regain control. The next target would be the previous high area. Below this zone, bears still hold the short-term advantage.
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