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On Tuesday evening, U.S. stock index futures broadly rebounded as investors focused on two key catalysts: the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
On Monday, the ES (S&P 500 futures) rebounded sharply as expected, reaching resistance near 5725. In today’s pre-market, ES pulled back to around 5655. The NQ (Nasdaq futures) also pulled back to around 19970. As repeatedly emphasized: index futures are in a rebound, not a reversal — caution is warranted as rallies face resistance and may retrace. However, overall market momentum remains intact, and current price action is simply a normal high-level consolidation near key resistance zones.
The Q1 2025 earnings season is nearing its end. So far, 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, showing a year-over-year growth of +12.8% in profits and +4.8% in revenue. The forward P/E ratio stands at 20.2.
Boosted by strong employment data and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, U.S. stocks surged across the board on Friday — with one notable exception: Apple. Its decline stands out and warrants caution.
Wholesale and retail inventories for March remained unchanged from the previous month. At 9 a.m., the House Price Index will be released, followed by Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data at 10 a.m. However, these are lagging indicators and are expected to have limited impact on the broader market — unless the results are exceptionally strong or weak.
Over the past week, the market has performed almost exactly in line with our previously outlined expectations.
ES (S&P 500 Futures):
The current correction in the S&P 500 has reached a low of 4,835 points, which aligns with the target range of 4,800 given on April 5. The highest rebound was to 5,481 points, filling the gap from the April 3 drop. Overall, the 5,050–4,950 range is considered a medium-term safe entry zone, while 5,400–5,700 is the rebound resistance zone.
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Today’s market pullback, along with NVDA’s drop, was partly blamed on Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago. But was it really that hawkish? I don’t think so.
Apr. 15 – NVDA
Since the rebound began in 2022, U.S. equities have shown notable strength, but recent technical signals suggest that the trend may be under pressure. Today, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 saw their medium-term moving averages (e.g., 50-day) cross below their long-term moving averages (e.g., 200-day), forming what’s known in technical analysis as a Death Cross — a signal often associated with the onset of a bearish trend.
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